Scroll compressor 2020 or will enter the dark moment

Scroll compressor 2020 or will enter the dark moment
Affected by factors such as product competition and the weakening of downstream demand, in the context of the overall downturn in the HVAC industry, the production and sales volume of air-conditioning scroll compressors in 2019 hit a new low of nearly ten years, and at the same time, the product structure also entered deep adjustment. Since the beginning of 2020, this trend has continued under the influence of the epidemic.

2019: The decline continues unabated, structural adjustment continues

According to industry online data, the cumulative production of China's air-conditioning scroll compressor industry in 2019 was 3.394 million units, down 10.1% year-on-year; the cumulative sales in fiscal year were 3.401 million units, down 9.8% year-on-year. The market opened lower and lowered throughout the year. The market continued to fluctuate lower in the first and second quarters, and the market rebounded slightly in the third and fourth quarters to stabilize.

The overall domestic market sales have shrunk, and the product structure has further tilted towards greater cooling capacity.

In 2019, the market share of scroll compressor products in the 3-7HP range continued to decrease, and the overall share has fallen to 32.5%. The main reason is still affected by the substitution of dual rotor models. At the same time, some mainstream machine manufacturers use 5HP rotor models in large quantities in the unit, replacing the vortex's share in this market.

In the cooling area above 7HP, the air-conditioning scroll compressor also began to undergo structural adjustments. In 2019, 1.181 million scroll models sold above 7HP, and the proportion in the domestic market of air-conditioning scroll compressors further increased to 41.7%, down 4.1% year-on-year. This is also the first decline in scroll models above 7HP in recent years.

The reason is that on the one hand, the growth rate of the whole machine market is declining, and on the other hand, it is due to the gradual increase in the proportion of larger-capacity products such as 15HP or more. According to Industry Online, current mainstream scroll compressor companies have 7-15HP scroll products for sale.

Affected by the weakening of downstream demand and the conversion of large models, the 7-15HP scroll compressor in 2019 saw a 6.1% decline. Its representative products are 10HP, 12HP inverter scroll compressors used in multi-line and modular machines. 12HP fixed frequency scroll compressor.

As mainstream manufacturers vigorously develop single-module products with greater cooling capacity, scroll compressor products above 15HP have begun to gain market favor. In 2019, the air-conditioning scroll compressors in this cooling capacity range increased by 25.8% over the same period last year. Its representative products are 16HP, 18HP variable frequency scroll compressors used in multi-line and 25HP fixed frequency scroll compressors used in modular machines.

Judging from the performance of refrigerant breakdown products, the proportion of R410A scroll compressors has risen again in 2019, and the current proportion has reached 42.6%. As mainstream machine manufacturers switch to new refrigerant products in an all-round way, R410A products are quickly favored by the market as the best transition refrigerant at present.

At present, R410A has been fully applied in multi-line products in China, and the proportion of module machine products has also begun to dominate. At the same time, new refrigerant switching has also begun to appear in unit products with the largest proportion of vortex consumption. .

From the perspective of fixed frequency inverter products, fixed speed air conditioner scroll products are affected by rotor competition and market downturn. In 2019, there was a sharp decline of 14.8%. Among them, fixed-frequency scroll compressors for unit machines suffered a continuous impact from the rotor, and the decline rate was relatively large; module machines were also affected by factors such as market inventory and the large-scale use of 25HP cooling models, which also declined compared to previous years.

Compared with the sharp decline of fixed-speed products, the performance of inverter scroll compressors in 2019 is still remarkable, and the overall maintained a slight increase of 1.5%. From the perspective of application, this year's inverter multi-line scroll compressor products have been relatively stable. In addition, the inverter scroll compressor products have opened new market spaces in the subdivision fields such as modular water machines, machine room air conditioners, and heat pump heating. Batch application.

It is worth mentioning that in 2019, China's air-conditioning scroll compressor export market has picked up, with 577,000 units exported throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. However, scroll compressor products are currently based on direct sales from the origin, and the export market accounts for about 16.8%.

In terms of export regions, Brazil, India, and France are the main exporters of scroll compressors this year. Among them, the Brazilian market has grown significantly, and India has performed relatively well. The Middle East region is affected by the local political and economic environment, and the annual export volume Significant decline; other major export regions such as Japan, South Korea, Thailand and other Southeast Asian regions performed poorly.

2020, or will usher in a "dark moment"

In 2020, the market situation of scroll compressors is also not optimistic, and the entire industry may usher in a "dark moment."

From a macroeconomic perspective, the downward pressure on the domestic economy will increase in 2020. The sudden outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic at the beginning of the year is expected to have a greater impact on the economy in the first quarter, which will affect the economic performance of the whole year; at the same time as the overseas epidemic spreads This will inevitably cause a global economic slowdown, local political conflicts may intensify simultaneously, and overseas demand will further weaken.

Judging from the downstream market situation, the domestic and commercial air-conditioning market will remain in the down-track range in the short term due to factors such as poor economy and high inventory, but in the long term, the domestic market still has great potential. It is expected that the full range of air-conditioning products will decline to varying degrees in 2020.

From the perspective of product competition, with the introduction of new air-conditioning energy efficiency standards, the impact of rotor compressors on scroll compressors will also continue, and there is still some downward space for scroll compressor market share. In the future, the growth of scroll compressor companies will gradually shift to new subdivided fields, such as commercial heating, industrial and agricultural drying, freezing and refrigeration, computer room air conditioning, and vehicle air conditioning.

From the perspective of market competition, the market competition environment of the scroll compressor industry in 2020 will be very cruel. On the one hand, mainstream machine manufacturers Gree, Midea, etc. have introduced vortex products of their own supply systems, which is undoubtedly worse for the vortex manufacturers in the external supply market; on the other hand, as mainstream manufacturers have begun to increase the details In terms of application fields, competition in emerging markets has also begun. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, it is expected that the cost of raw materials and labor will rise further in the future. Facing the double test of the market and the supply chain, the competition among scroll compressor companies will continue to escalate.

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